Four years ago, anti-French slogans filled public squares in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey. The forced departures of ambassadors and soldiers from Operation Barkhane were celebrated as historic victories. Military leaders promised that regained sovereignty would magically solve the terrorist equation. By 2026, the honeymoon is over. The balance sheet of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) reveals systemic failure that state propaganda can no longer mask.
The security mirage: boomerang effect of the Russian partnership
The main justification for the coups was France’s inability to eradicate jihadism. Yet the chosen remedy is proving worse than the disease. By replacing Western forces with Russian paramilitaries of Africa Corps (ex-Wagner), Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey opted for a scorched-earth strategy. On the ground, terrorist groups JNIM and EIGS have never been stronger. They now encircle strategic cities and cut off vital supply routes. Even more alarming, the human cost is terrifying. Independent reports highlight a surge in atrocities against civilians during joint operations. Far from being protected, Sahel populations are caught between jihadist terror and the brutality of new security auxiliaries, while the number of internally displaced people hits historic records.
Diplomatic isolation: institutional flight forward
To mask domestic failures, AES leaders have chosen a policy of permanent rupture. Their dramatic withdrawal from ECOWAS deprived the three countries of their natural economic partners. More recently, their collective exit from the International Criminal Court and restrictions on UN agencies complete the transformation of the region into a diplomatic grey zone. This flight forward serves mainly to shield the regimes from any external scrutiny of human rights or the timing of democratic transitions. Promised elections to return power to civilians are systematically postponed indefinitely, turning temporary transitions into entrenched military dictatorships.
Economy in freefall and social regression
On the economic front, the picture is equally grim. The rhetoric of monetary sovereignty and self-sufficiency clashes with harsh numbers. Regional isolation has driven up the cost of living and basic necessities. Local businesses suffocate under indirect sanctions, declining foreign investment, and chronic power cuts that paralyse Bamako and Ouagadougou. While national budgets are bled dry to fund the war effort and pay Russian mercenaries (often compensated through mining concessions), basic social services collapse. Thousands of schools remain closed, and the health system is depleted. Instead of investing in human development, national resources are confiscated by military apparatuses.
A change of masters, not liberation
Four years after the great divorce from Paris, the assessment is bitter. The Sahel is neither safer, nor more prosperous, nor more independent. By chasing out an imperfect but predictable Western partner, AES leaders have thrown their countries into the arms of an opportunistic Russia whose only objective is geopolitical. The promised “second independence” has turned into a tragic economic and security regression, where the sovereignty brandished at the top serves only as a screen for the asphyxiation of the people below.
