Niger’s general Tiani navigates a perilous path of secret talks and military unrest

Confronted by a multifaceted terrorist threat and burgeoning discontent within his own ranks, General Abdourahamane Tiani is attempting a desperate maneuver. Between clandestine discussions near Say with the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM) and a firm reassertion of control over the military hierarchy, the leader of Niger’s transitional government is treading a precarious path to avert the capital’s strangulation.

The Say channel: tactical realism at a steep price

A pivotal shift in strategy was signaled by a confidential meeting on March 24, held in the vicinity of Say. By dispatching a four-member delegation to the GSIM, General Tiani has departed from a stance of “absolute firmness,” adopting instead a pragmatic approach centered on survival.

An analysis of these developments reveals two strategic pillars:

• Strategic Prioritization of Threats: Confronted by the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS), whose extremism was starkly demonstrated by the January assault on Diori-Hamani airport, the junta aims to “neutralize” the GSIM through diplomatic engagement. The objective is to transition an exhausting triangular conflict into a more manageable bilateral front.
• The Looming Specter of a Bamako-Style Blockade: Niger observes with apprehension the unfolding situation in Mali, where the GSIM has sought to cripple the capital. By engaging with the demands of the Hanifa katiba, which include prisoner releases and the payment of an annual tithe, Niamey hopes to secure crucial logistical breathing room.

Disquiet in the ranks: the ticking time bomb of unpaid wages

However, even the most elaborate high-level strategy can falter without the unwavering cohesion of its military personnel. The recent dismissal of the head of the Security and Intelligence Battalion (BSR) in Tahoua, precipitated by grievances over pay discrepancies (soldiers reportedly received 800 F CFA instead of 1,200), exposes a significant structural vulnerability.

This elite unit, once a cornerstone of cooperation with US special forces before their mandated departure in 2024, now serves as a stark symbol of the disquiet gripping an army grappling with budget cuts and internal logistical hurdles. Colonel Mamane Sani Kiaou, the army chief of staff, was compelled to personally intervene to quell the burgeoning unrest, underscoring that the internal threat poses a challenge at least as formidable as the jihadist insurgency.

The security vacuum and geopolitical pivot

The escalation of these clandestine negotiations unfolds against a backdrop of profound geopolitical realignment. Following the withdrawal of French and American forces, Niger has reoriented its alliances towards the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and new partners, including Russia and Turkey.

Despite the influx of military advisors and new equipment, notably surveillance drones, the operational landscape remains fraught with difficulty. The cessation of high-precision aerial intelligence sharing, previously provided by bases 101 in Niamey and Agadez, now compels the junta to forge a new form of field diplomacy with groups it once actively combated.

The paradox of continuity: mohamed bazoum’s shadow

A profound irony emerges in the involuntary mirroring of the former regime’s strategic approach. While the coup d’état of July 26, 2023, was officially rationalized by the alleged “security failure” of Mohamed Bazoum, General Tiani now finds himself compelled to employ identical levers: negotiation as an integral component of counter-insurgency.

However, unlike Bazoum, who openly embraced dialogue for hostage releases (such as that of nun Suellen Tennyson), the current junta must conduct these operations clandestinely. This secrecy stems from a fear that such engagement could be interpreted by its most radical supporters—and its AES allies—as a sign of weakness in the face of Al-Qaeda.

The Niamey regime stands at a critical juncture. Engaging in negotiations with the GSIM to isolate the EIGS represents a rational, yet politically fraught, calculation. By agreeing to discuss terms involving “tithes” or “zone withdrawals,” the junta risks inadvertently conferring long-term legitimacy upon armed factions. For General Tiani, the paramount challenge is no longer seizing power, but rather preserving the unity of an army that is increasingly scrutinizing its meager resources while its adversaries tally their territorial gains.