Côte d’Ivoire cocoa export outlook shaken by El Niño threat

The promising start to Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa export campaign—with nearly one million tonnes already contracted for the 2026-27 harvest—could face disruption due to the anticipated arrival of the El Niño weather phenomenon in July, industry insiders and agricultural commodity traders caution. To manage stock levels, the Council of Coffee and Cocoa (CCC), headquartered in Abidjan, has increased its premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the futures price, according to sectoral sources.

The renewed demand strength and expected market tightening with the new season kicking off on September 1st have driven these initiatives, as Côte d’Ivoire remains the world’s top cocoa producer. « While we’ve already secured contracts for 950,000 to 1 million tonnes for the next season, we’ve opted to slow the pace and proceed with caution, » a source within the CCC revealed.

Cocoa trading firms are projecting exports to reach between 1.1 and 1.2 million tonnes, citing the elevated premium as a key factor. « The market conditions allow the CCC to adopt a firmer stance. They don’t need to lower the premium to secure deals, » explained a representative from a cocoa trading company.

Yet, this cautiously optimistic market outlook may be short-lived. El Niño’s potential arrival could trigger severe droughts in major cocoa-producing nations, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, posing a direct threat to harvests.

Beyond climate concerns, industry players highlight deeper structural challenges. Many of Côte d’Ivoire’s aging cocoa plantations are battling age-related decline and disease. « El Niño isn’t the biggest risk to production. The real crisis lies in the shortage of fertilizers and phytosanitary products, » stressed the director of an Abidjan-based export firm. The surge in fertilizer prices has further compounded the strain on farmers, threatening long-term productivity.