Eastern DRC turmoil: Nangaa and Kabila’s Kinshasa ambitions spark AFC/M23 fractures

A fresh United Nations experts report shines a harsh light on the deepening divisions within the Alliance Fleuve Congo/Mouvement du 23 mars (AFC/M23) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s eastern provinces. The document, shared with the UN Security Council, reveals stark contrasts between political ambitions and military realities, resource rivalries, and shifting alliances that threaten to destabilize the region further.

Military command and political ambitions collide

The report underscores that despite Corneille Nangaa—former head of the Independent National Electoral Commission—and Joseph Kabila pushing for political control over Kinshasa, the military leadership of the AFC/M23 remains firmly in the hands of General Sultani Makenga. His authority, however, is increasingly contested both internally within the movement and externally by Rwanda.

The document also notes that while Bertrand Bisimwa and Nangaa lead the political wing, military and political figures continue to receive directives and support from Rwandan authorities and intelligence services. This dual influence has created a fragile balance of power, with tensions simmering between the political and military factions.

Expansion plans stall amid internal strife

One of the most critical revelations is the sharp disagreement over the AFC/M23’s military expansion. While some leaders, including Nangaa and Kabila, advocate for broader operations beyond the North Kivu and South Kivu regions, most military commanders oppose such moves. Instead, they prioritize consolidating control over existing territories.

“Political ambitions to seize power in Kinshasa clash with military caution,” the report states. “High-ranking M23 officials are also locked in bitter disputes over access to and distribution of resources, with allegations of preferential treatment for Tutsi officers and fighters.”

The territorial division of the AFC/M23-controlled areas into three “defense zones” further highlights structural fragmentation:

• Zone 1: Covers Nyiragongo, Rutshuru, and Lubero, led by General Baudoin Ngaruye.
• Zone 2: Encompasses Masisi and Walikale, under the command of Brigadier General Justin Gacheri Musanga.
• Zone 3: Spans South Kivu, directed by General Innocent Byamungu.

Manpower and recruitment: a shifting landscape

The AFC/M23’s fighting force is estimated at approximately 30,000 combatants. This number includes a core of former National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) members and historic M23 fighters, supplemented by recruits mobilized since 2021. Many of these new recruits come from the Rwandan diaspora and refugee camps, as well as former FARDC soldiers, Congolese National Police officers, and Wazalendo militia members who were captured or defected after the fall of Goma.

The report also mentions the integration of local defense forces and newly formed police units, reflecting a fragmented and opportunistic recruitment strategy that further complicates efforts to stabilize the region.

Diplomatic deadlock exacerbates instability

The UN experts’ findings come at a time when the Washington Agreement, signed nearly a year ago, remains largely unimplemented. Kinshasa and Kigali continue to interpret the agreement’s provisions differently, creating a climate of mistrust and hindering progress.

The Doha Process, mediated by Qatar, has similarly failed to bridge the gap between the Congolese government and the AFC/M23 rebellion, which is backed by Rwanda. The much-anticipated Montreux talks in Switzerland did little to revive momentum, with broader geopolitical distractions in the Middle East diverting attention away from the DRC crisis.

The deteriorating security and humanitarian situation in eastern DRC—marked by persistent violence, displacement, and economic instability—demands urgent action. Yet, the fractured leadership of the AFC/M23, coupled with regional tensions, continues to delay meaningful resolution.

What lies ahead?

The UN report paints a sobering picture of a movement at odds with itself, torn between political aspirations and military pragmatism. As long as internal rivalries and external influences overshadow the AFC/M23’s cohesion, the prospects for peace in eastern DRC remain dim. The international community’s role in mediating these disputes has never been more critical, yet the path forward remains obscured by deep-seated mistrust and competing agendas.