Gabon debt reaches $15 billion in 2025, a new milestone for the CEMAC economy

The Gabonese public debt has reached approximately $15 billion in 2025, a record high for the CEMAC economy. This level, revealed after a marked exercise with tensions of liquidity and increased recourse to regional markets, confirms the upward trajectory started several years ago. It places Libreville face with an increasingly tight fiscal arbitrage imperative, in a context where oil revenues remain the key variable of public finances.

A debt trajectory that questions sustainability

When compared to national wealth, the burden is now approaching the CEMAC’s 70% threshold for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) set by the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC). The Gabon, fifth-largest economy in the sub-region, had previously built a reputation on prudent management of macroeconomic ratios in the early 2000s. However, the situation has reversed under the combined effect of the 2014 oil price slump, the health crisis, and the swelling of domestic debt within local banks and public bond markets.

The current stock combines an external component still dominant, primarily backed by eurobonds issued between 2013 and 2020, and a growing domestic debt whose weight continues to increase. Regular emissions of treasury bonds on regional markets have helped cover monthly expenses, but at the cost of interest rates that weigh heavily on the budget.

The delicate balance of transition Oligui Nguema

Since taking office in August 2023, General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema has made restoring fiscal balances a cornerstone of his economic program. The Committee for Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI) announced several debt audits, particularly on unpaid internal payments to state suppliers and local authorities. The goal is to identify disputed claims and reclassify authentic ones, freeing up treasury funds for public investment.

Despite this, the exercise remains constrained by remittance schedules. Gabon must honor several eurobond maturities in the coming years, including a dollar-denominated title maturing soon, whose refinancing poses already a major challenge. Libreville has tested international markets with a 2024 operation to manage its debt burden, partially backed by a conversion mechanism for debt-nature, without resolving the underlying equation. The regained credibility of investors depends on a clear fiscal policy and formal dialogue with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Petroleum, manganese, and wood: export revenue levers

The Gabon’s ability to absorb this burden is closely tied to the performance of its export-oriented sectors. Petroleum remains the backbone of budget revenues, with production oscillating around 200,000 barrels per day, in a moderate decline trend. Manganese, which Libreville is a world leader in through the Ogooué Mining Company (Comilog), a subsidiary of French group Eramet, contributes increasingly to revenue growth, driven by Asian demand. The wood processing industry, tied to the Nkok economic zone, completes the trio.

Authorities are also pushing for an acceleration of infrastructure projects, including roads and energy, to support non-petro-based growth. The Transgabon project and several partnerships in hydroelectricity must propel activity beyond 3% annual rate, a necessary condition to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio. Without this surge, Gabon risks seeing its sovereign rating deteriorate further, following successive downward movements of international agencies.

The 2026 budget roadmap will therefore need to balance discipline in expenditure, mobilization of non-tax revenues, and targeted renegotiation of the stock. A delicate balance is required, but crucial for the credibility of the country on regional and international markets. According to Financial Afrik, this level reached in 2025 constitutes a major point of vigilance for Gabon’s economic trajectory.

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