Tchad economy outlook improves with S&P’s stable rating

S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed Chad’s sovereign credit rating at B- with a stable outlook, validating the country’s economic trajectory under the Chad Connexion 2030 National Development Plan. The Ministry of Finance highlighted that this decision reflects strong confidence in Chad’s economic resilience, driven by steady growth, controlled debt levels, and sustained support from international partners.

Growth projections revised upward: from 3.6% to 5.2%

Chad’s economic recovery, which began in 2023 following rising hydrocarbon prices and service sector rebounds, has gained momentum. S&P now projects real GDP growth of 5% for 2025, up from its December 2024 forecast of 3.6% annually between 2024 and 2027. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also upgraded Chad’s growth outlook to 5.2%, underscoring the economy’s robustness.

The expansion is fueled by improved agricultural output and a rebound in non-oil sectors, though hydrocarbons remain a critical pillar, accounting for a significant share of exports and public revenue. Meanwhile, agriculture and services bolster domestic demand, creating a more balanced growth foundation.

Debt levels remain under control

Chad has made remarkable strides in managing its public debt, transitioning from high vulnerability to a more sustainable trajectory. The debt-to-GDP ratio has declined to approximately 36%, a level that compares favorably with peers in the region. In 2022, Chad became the first country globally to restructure its external debt under the G20 Common Framework, reducing its overall debt burden.

Concessionary loans—those with favorable repayment terms—now constitute the majority of Chad’s debt, freeing up financial space for critical investments. This fiscal prudence has enhanced the country’s appeal to investors and enabled progress on key initiatives outlined in the Chad Connexion 2030 plan. Authorities continue to prioritize debt sustainability while allocating resources to social spending and infrastructure development.

Stronger domestic revenue mobilization

Significant progress has been made in boosting domestic revenue collection—a cornerstone of Chad’s ongoing economic reforms. The tax-to-GDP ratio, though still modest, rose from 9.8% in 2022 to 13.1% in 2023, according to OECD data, reflecting efforts to broaden the tax base and enhance tax administration.

In 2025, non-oil revenues have continued to exceed projections, supported by vibrant activity in non-hydrocarbon sectors and measures implemented under the IMF program approved in July 2025, valued at $625.3 million. Digitalization of public finances and governance improvements have further streamlined collection processes.

The Ministry of Finance stated that S&P’s rating confirmation “strengthens Chad’s financial credibility and enhances its attractiveness for private investment while reinforcing confidence among international partners in the reform agenda.”

Sustaining momentum with Chad Connexion 2030

While S&P’s stable rating underscores Chad’s economic stability, further work is needed to solidify progress in key areas: economic diversification, enhanced tax mobilization, sustainable debt levels, and critical infrastructure upgrades. These priorities are central to the Chad Connexion 2030 National Development Plan, adopted in May 2025 following the country’s political transition.

The plan was launched after the 2021–2024 transition period, which culminated in the 2024 presidential election of President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, the adoption of a new Constitution, and a national reconciliation dialogue. With economic emergence now a national priority, Chad secured $20.5 billion in financing from public and private partners at the November 2025 Abu Dhabi conference to fund its strategic roadmap.

The plan encompasses 268 cross-cutting projects across four strategic axes:

• Accelerating strategic infrastructure development (electricity, water, roads, telecommunications).
• Enhancing social policies in education, health, vocational training, youth employment, and social inclusion.
• Diversifying the economy through export-oriented sectors in agriculture, livestock, fisheries, mining, and tourism, with added focus on local processing.
• Improving the business environment by simplifying administrative procedures.

Aimed at lifting 2.6 million people out of poverty, the plan targets an 8% annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030, with a projected 60% increase in GDP by 2030.