The dust has settled a year after Cameroon’s contentious presidential mandate renewal, and reactions are polarizing in Yaoundé and beyond. The sweeping promises of economic revival, governance reform and national cohesion made in Paul Biya’s post-reelection address have yet to translate into visible progress, leaving both citizens and investors questioning the government’s capacity to deliver.
Institutional stasis fuels governance crisis
The electoral framework remains the epicenter of political tension. Despite repeated calls from civil society and opposition leaders such as Maurice Kamto and Cabral Libii, the proposed overhaul of Elections Cameroon continues to gather dust. The 2018 presidential vote’s irregularities—rooted in Elecam’s disputed composition since its 2006 inception—have yet to prompt a concrete reform agenda, deepening skepticism about the credibility of future polls.
The Anglophone crisis persists as the most volatile open wound. Although the 2019 Grand National Dialogue endorsed a special status for the Northwest and Southwest regions, implementation has stalled. Sporadic clashes between security forces and separatist factions continue to disrupt the cocoa supply chain, a sector where the Anglophone belt accounts for nearly half of Cameroon’s production. According to UN agencies, the number of internally displaced persons remains stubbornly high, with no significant decline in sight.
Economic constraints and security threats cloud the horizon
Under its Extended Credit Facility with the International Monetary Fund, Cameroon is committed to fiscal consolidation and debt transparency, yet GDP growth lingers between 3.5% and 4% annually—far below the level needed to absorb the 400,000 new entrants into the labor market each year. Public debt hovers around 45% of GDP, severely limiting the government’s ability to launch large-scale infrastructure projects.
Insecurity on two fronts compounds the challenge. In the Far North, Boko Haram and Islamic State-affiliated militants repeatedly strike communities near Lake Chad despite the ongoing Multinational Joint Task Force (comprising Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria). The UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs consistently ranks the region among the most crisis-prone in the Sahel. Meanwhile, military expenditure has been maintained at high levels, though no new defense doctrine has been unveiled since the mandate renewal.
What comes after Biya? The succession dilemma
The elephant in the room is succession. At 90, President Biya is Africa’s oldest sitting leader, and the 2008 constitutional amendment abolishing term limits has left the political future murky. Speculation about the role of Presidential Secretary and Prime Minister Joseph Dion Ngute, alongside key RDPC figures, is intensifying ahead of the upcoming legislative and municipal elections. The Gabonese transition in August 2023—marked by an unexpected military takeover—has intensified concerns among Cameroon’s economic partners, including China, France and multilateral lenders.
Investors in strategic sectors such as hydrocarbons, the Kribi deep-sea port and telecoms are closely monitoring signals from State House. So far, no public announcement has altered the institutional framework or signaled the start of a post-Biya transition. With the second anniversary of the extended mandate approaching, the coming months will be a litmus test for the government’s credibility and stability.
