Expert warns of m23’s deepening roots in eastern drc amid stalled peace efforts

During a recent online discussion hosted by journalist Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, I engaged with researcher Joshua Z. Walker, an Associate Fellow in the Africa program at Chatham House and a Senior Fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation. Our conversation explored the potential scenarios if Washington’s patience were to wane regarding the protracted peace process between the Democratic Republic of Congo (RDC) and Rwanda. Walker offered a cautious yet profoundly concerning analysis of the situation.

Initially, Walker tempered his remarks by stating, “I am not a prophet.” However, he proceeded to outline two primary hypotheses. The first suggests a reversion to the dynamics observed prior to the significant American intervention in 2025, essentially a return to the pre-existing conditions before Washington’s heightened involvement in the issue. The second, and more troubling, hypothesis points to the straightforward continuation of the current deadlock.

It is this latter scenario that most alarms the seasoned researcher. “I often say that even if there is no M23 withdrawal, every day that passes with the M23 continuing to occupy parts of eastern Congo, they become more deeply entrenched,” Walker emphasized. His perspective underscores a critical aspect of this African politics challenge.

According to Walker, the mere passage of time acts as an aggravating factor. “That’s the real fear, in fact: that we reach a point where, simply through the passage of time, we end up with a situation where, de facto, a portion of the RDC remains entirely outside government control.” This ongoing M23 eastern DRC entrenchment poses a significant threat to regional stability and the future of the Congolese state.