The 2024 General Population and Housing Census (RGPH 2024) has laid bare Morocco’s dramatic demographic shifts over the past decade. The surge in urban peripheries, decline in historic city centers, and relative stagnation in rural areas have reshaped the country’s population landscape in profound ways.

These changes raise critical questions about electoral fairness for the 2026 legislative elections. A closer examination of demographic data alongside the current electoral map reveals widening disparities in representation across Morocco’s provinces.

Stark contrasts in voter-to-representative ratios

The electoral map’s design, which measures the number of eligible voters per parliamentary seat, highlights significant disparities. Morocco’s electoral system operates on two key principles:

• Demographic logic: Adjusting the number of seats to match population size.
• Territorial equity: Ensuring a minimum of two seats per province to prevent marginalization of less densely populated or remote regions.

This minimum representation rule creates extreme contrasts in representativeness. In several southern provinces or sparsely populated areas, the ratio of eligible voters per seat is particularly low:

• Aousserd: 2,992 eligible voters per seat
• Tarfaya: 5,368 eligible voters per seat
• Assa-Zag: 10,178 eligible voters per seat
• Es-Semara: 19,712 eligible voters per seat
• Boujdour: 20,185 eligible voters per seat

Conversely, major urban hubs and their suburbs exhibit extremely high ratios:

• Tanger-Assilah: 213,980 eligible voters per seat
• Ménara (Marrakech): 176,256 eligible voters per seat
• Sidi Bernoussi (Casablanca): 174,501 eligible voters per seat
• Nouaceur (Casablanca periphery): 155,172 eligible voters per seat
• Inezgane-Aït Melloul: 151,978 eligible voters per seat

A single vote in a province like Aousserd or Tarfaya carries far greater weight in electing a deputy compared to casting a ballot in urban centers like Tanger or Marrakech.

Urban-rural asymmetry and the rise of peripheries

The RGPH 2024 data underscores Morocco’s accelerating urbanization. With a total population of 36,828,330, urban residents now number 23,110,108—an increase of nearly 2.68 million over a decade. Meanwhile, the rural population stands at 13,718,222, growing by just 302,419 in the same period. Notably, 71.2% of Morocco’s population is concentrated in just five regions: Grand Casablanca-Settat, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, Marrakech-Safi, Fès-Meknès, and Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma.

Geographer David Goeury points to a striking trend: the exodus of residents from historic city centers to peripheral communes. For instance, Casablanca-Anfa’s population plummeted by nearly a quarter over a decade, dropping from 453,000 to 332,000. Yet, it retains four seats, translating to a ratio of 68,707 eligible voters per seat.

In contrast, the peripheral province of Nouaceur saw its population double during the same period, reaching 665,000. With only three seats, its ratio stands at 155,172 eligible voters per seat.

If the electoral map remains unchanged for 2026, these disparities will deepen within metropolitan areas. Similar patterns emerge in Rabat, where the Rabat-Océan and Rabat-Chellah constituencies have low ratios of 55,856 and 59,598 eligible voters per seat, respectively, compared to the rapidly growing Skhirat-Témara periphery at 141,832 eligible voters per seat.

Political stakes of potential electoral redistricting

Adapting the electoral map to align with 2024 census data involves complex political decisions ahead of the 2026 elections. If the Interior Ministry opts to rebalance seats without increasing the total number of deputies in the Chamber of Representatives, it would need to reallocate seats from declining demographic zones—such as Anfa or certain Rabat districts—to expanding peripheries like Nouaceur or Skhirat-Témara.

Reducing the number of seats in a constituency intensifies electoral competition. Fewer seats favor larger parties with greater financial resources and established mobilization structures, such as the current coalition parties: RNI, PAM, and Istiqlal. Conversely, a higher number of seats per constituency lowers the threshold for parliamentary entry via the ‘largest remainder’ system, benefiting smaller parties.

Rural anchoring and participation distortions

Despite growing urbanization, many city-dwelling voters remain registered and vote in their rural hometowns to preserve local influence. This explains the traditionally high turnout rates in rural areas, sometimes exceeding 90% of registered voters, contrasted with high abstention rates in urban centers—where abstention can surpass 70% to 80% in middle-class constituencies.

This transitional context frames the ongoing voter registration and list revision campaigns. Beyond registering new voters, these efforts aim to update records for citizens who have relocated from urban centers to rapidly growing peripheries, correct registration errors, and enhance the electoral file’s reliability ahead of the September 23, 2026, legislative elections.

Strategic challenges for the 2026 elections

The demographic data presents strategic challenges for the upcoming vote, as analyzed by David Goeury. Key considerations include:

• Mobilizing the urban middle class: Hit hard by inflation and feeling disconnected from recent targeted social aid reforms, middle-class voters in major cities largely abstained in 2021. Their potential return to polling stations in 2026—whether through protest voting or support for alternative platforms—could reshape current political balances.
• Political positioning: Ruling coalition parties must defend their economic and social track records in a post-inflation context, while opposition groups like the PJD seek to capitalize on urban discontent and rekindle support among disillusioned local activists.

Ultimately, reconciling the demographic realities of the 2024 census with territorial equity will demand precision from policymakers. Though no official electoral map revision has been announced, the new population figures have set the stage for an inevitable technical and political debate ahead of the 2026 legislative elections.