Sahel crisis: rising jihadist violence and political repression in west africa

The Sahel has vanished from global headlines. While the world’s focus shifted to conflicts in Ukraine, Israel and Palestine, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the deepening crises in the Sahel have largely faded from public attention. Yet, the violence and instability in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—the three nations forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—continue to escalate, posing severe threats to regional and global security.

Once hailed as a frontline against jihadist insurgencies, the AES states have failed to curb the spread of armed groups. Instead, these groups have expanded their reach, carrying out increasingly deadly attacks on civilians. The Sahel now ranks as the most affected region by jihadist violence worldwide, with fatalities tripling since 2021. The situation is exacerbated by the growing authoritarianism in all three countries, where military juntas have indefinitely postponed elections, suppressed dissent, and restricted press freedom. Journalists and human rights activists face arbitrary arrests, forced exile, or worse—silencing voices critical of the regimes.

escalating violence: jihadist groups gain ground in the Sahel

The Sahel’s transformation into the world’s deadliest hotspot for jihadist violence is stark. In 2024 alone, over 11,200 deaths were attributed to militant Islamist groups, a figure that does not include the 2,430 civilians killed by state security forces and their Russian allies. This alarming trend underscores a disturbing reality: security actors may now be responsible for more civilian deaths than the armed groups they fight.

Mali: a nation trapped between jihadists and separatists

Since the 2023 expulsion of the UN’s MINUSMA peacekeeping mission, Mali has witnessed a resurgence of armed clashes, particularly with Tuareg separatists in the north, backed by Russian mercenaries. The junta’s forces are now engaged in a two-front war—against both separatists and jihadist factions, which the regime labels as “terrorists.” Strategic setbacks, such as the defeat of Malian and Wagner Group forces at Tinzaouaten in July 2024, have exposed the fragility of the junta’s control.

Civilian casualties have surged, with high-profile attacks like the July 2024 wedding massacre in Mopti (40 dead) and August drone strikes in retaliation for Tinzaouaten (over 20 civilians killed). Despite these setbacks, public surveys in 2024 revealed that Malians still express confidence in their military’s supposed “strengthening.”

Burkina Faso: state collapse and civilian militias fuel chaos

Burkina Faso has seen its security situation deteriorate rapidly since the 2022 military coup. By 2024, the JNIM (Group for Support of Islam and Muslims)—affiliated with Al-Qaeda—controlled over 60% of the country, with attacks rising by 68% between 2022 and 2023. The Barsalogho massacre in August 2024, where jihadists killed between 130 and 600 civilians, marked one of the deadliest attacks in the nation’s history.

The junta’s controversial strategy of arming civilians—particularly through the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP)—has backfired. Recruitment, often forced and concentrated in certain ethnic groups, has intensified intercommunal tensions. Reports of soldier-led massacres, civilian mutilations, and retaliatory attacks by the JNIM paint a grim picture of a society militarized from within. With over 2 million internally displaced persons, Burkina Faso faces one of the worst humanitarian crises in the region.

Niger: rising jihadist threats and state repression

While Niger initially fared better than its AES counterparts, the situation has worsened since the 2023 coup. Civilian deaths at the hands of jihadists and state forces have surged, with the military killing three times more civilians in 2023 than the previous year. The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS) has escalated attacks, including a March 2025 mosque massacre that left 44 dead. Civilian displacement and food insecurity are reaching critical levels, with 52.7 million people in West Africa at risk of acute hunger during the 2025 lean season.

authoritarian drift: silencing dissent to mask failure

Unable to assert control over their territories, the AES regimes have turned to suppressing information. Independent media outlets, including RFI, France 24, and TV5Monde, have been banned or suspended in all three countries. Journalists face arbitrary arrests, forced conscription, or exile, while civil society organizations and opposition parties are systematically dismantled. In Burkina Faso, critics are labeled “terrorists” to justify repression, and in Niger, foreign researchers are detained at airports, restricting international oversight.

This crackdown extends to digital spaces, with social media platforms monitored and dissenting voices systematically silenced. The regimes’ claim of controlling 70% of their territories—mirroring estimates of jihadist influence—highlights their reliance on propaganda to obscure reality. For ordinary citizens, accessing unbiased information has become nearly impossible.

permanent transitions: juntas cling to power amid regional instability

The AES regimes have systematically extended their transition periods, using constitutional reforms to prolong their rule. In Mali, the junta pushed for a transition lasting until 2029, while Burkina Faso and Niger followed suit with five-year transitions. These maneuvers not only consolidate power but also enable deeper ties with alternative partners like Russia, as seen in the recent pledge of military support for the AES joint force.

The delay in elections reflects a broader strategy: avoiding accountability while reshaping regional alliances. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has lost leverage, and the juntas now dictate the terms of engagement, both domestically and internationally.

the Sahel’s silent crisis: why the world cannot look away

The international community’s disengagement from the Sahel is a strategic misstep. While crises in Ukraine and the Middle East dominate headlines, the Sahel’s instability carries global repercussions. Jihadist groups are expanding their networks, fueling transnational terrorism and migration crises that will inevitably reach Europe and beyond. Food insecurity, now affecting 52.7 million people in West Africa, and the displacement of over 3.1 million individuals across the Sahel and Chad threaten to destabilize the entire continent.

The European Union faces a critical choice: either re-engage with the Sahel through renewed diplomatic and humanitarian efforts or risk a prolonged humanitarian catastrophe. Early signs of cautious rapprochement, such as the EU’s new Special Representative, suggest a potential shift. However, any re-engagement must be strategic, prioritizing civilian protection, democratic accountability, and long-term stability over short-term alliances.

The Sahel’s silence does not mean safety. It masks a deepening crisis that demands urgent, coordinated action. Ignoring it will have consequences far beyond Africa’s borders.