An economist’s candid look at Cameroon’s 2027 electoral landscape

A candid political forecast for Cameroon’s 2027 elections

With Cameroon’s crucial double elections slated for 2027 fast approaching, economist Serge Alain Godong offers an unvarnished assessment of the nation’s political dynamics. Drawing upon sophisticated analytical frameworks, he explains why, in his view, Maurice Kamto faced an insurmountable challenge in 2018 and is likely to encounter similar difficulties in the upcoming polls.

Godong’s comprehensive analysis employs both “game theory” and the “prisoner’s dilemma” to dissect the political landscape. He characterizes the current administration as “openly twilight” and observes an electorate that consistently opts for the perceived certainty of the familiar over the uncertain promise of change.

“The overtly declining nature of the four-decade-old regime compels us more than ever to grasp the consolidation or change dynamics shaping the Cameroonian public sphere,” states Serge Alain Godong in his detailed report. An accomplished economist, Godong holds degrees from Sciences-Po Paris, EHESS, and Paris X.

His starting point for this insightful examination is the 2018 electoral outcome. “The initial shock had gradually subsided regarding the ‘penalty scored’ that Mr. Maurice Kamto had publicly claimed to have taken,” Godong notes. Since then, Paul Biya has been sworn in, the MRC opposition party has been effectively neutralized, and the majority of Cameroonians have “acknowledged the tranquil continuation of his tenure on the comfortable seat of Etoudi.”

Godong’s demonstration is firmly rooted in the principles of “game theory,” built on two core assumptions: “humans are fundamentally calculating” and “they require information” to safeguard their potential gains. From this perspective, an election transforms into “a specific moment where an individual presents a national community with a form of contract for the future.”

However, Godong contends that Kamto cannot offer a more credible contract than the one already in place. He suggests that “the approximately 8.5 million Cameroonian voters expected to cast their ballots next year would only grant their votes to Mr. Maurice Kamto if they were absolutely convinced that he would, in the coming years, better secure their interests than Mr. Paul Biya.”

The economist identifies around 16 million current “winners” within the system: civil servants, employees in the formal private sector, liberal professionals, and their families. “It is therefore estimated that some 1500 billion F. CFA are annually distributed among these approximately 16 million Cameroonians who constitute these beneficiaries,” he explains. These individuals profit from public sector salaries, government contracts, and major infrastructure projects. “These very Cameroonians and their close relations will undoubtedly vote for the RDPC and its candidate, fully aware of the implications.”

This situation leads to the “prisoner’s dilemma”: without coordinated information and concrete evidence of a superior gain model, voters are inclined to maintain the status quo. “Cameroonians are thus perfectly aware that the current situation is rather disadvantageous; yet many among them distinctly prefer it to a presumably superior equilibrium position, about which they can say nothing with certainty.”

The analysis then delves into what Godong terms the “Bamiléké problem.” Citing Meredith Terretta, he recalls the distinction between “gung” and “lepue” – representing territory and freedom, respectively. From this, an “economic and social Darwinism” is ascribed to residents of the Grassfields region. Consequently, Godong asserts: “Mr. Kamto is therefore not viewed through the ordinary lens of a person offering an alternative political proposal […] but rather as a kind of malevolent avatar come to execute a diabolical plan.”

The author describes a distinct “syndrome” different from Stockholm Syndrome. He outlines a system of “eating together”: “everyone is linked to everyone by a small-scale illicit arrangement; everyone takes from their neighbor.” This model defines “the winners as simply those who ‘eat’ and the losers as those who are hungry.”

Godong’s conclusion is stark: whoever emerges victorious “will have no choice but to act swiftly and decisively.” Swift action for redistribution, and decisive action to elevate the economy as the singular “battle horse.” Achieving 6% growth, reducing the deficit, and combating corruption are all deemed “serious and urgent” priorities for the nation’s future.

Ultimately, the analyst predicts that the political arena “will become progressively less complacent, less rent-seeking.” He also emphasizes that the country requires “a strong and engaged Paul Biya” to navigate the post-election period effectively, especially concerning African economy news and the broader African politics English landscape.