Centrafrique: Wagner or africa corps, what risks for civilians?

The Central African Republic stands at a crossroads as two Russian-backed groups vie for influence. President Touadéra’s preference for Wagner clashes with Moscow’s push for the Africa Corps. For civilians, the choice seems bleak: either face brutal resource exploitation or pay a steep monthly fee for continued violence.

Wagner’s legacy: pillage and autonomy

For years, the Wagner Group operated in the Central African Republic with relative independence. Its presence was marked by widespread looting of gold, diamond, and timber resources. Payments were made in kind—through the seizure of national wealth—rather than through direct financial transactions. This model left the country’s infrastructure and economy in tatters, while Wagner fighters enjoyed near-total operational freedom.

Africa Corps arrives: a Russian-led shift in strategy

After the death of Evguéni Prigojine in 2025, Russia restructured its African operations under the banner of Africa Corps. Unlike Wagner, this new force reports directly to the Russian Ministry of Defense, introducing a layer of plausible deniability for Moscow. Analysts estimate its ranks at around 2,000 fighters in Mali alone, though recruitment extends beyond Russia to include Belarus and several African states.

The transition from Wagner to Africa Corps in Mali has done little to reassure civilians. Refugees fleeing the region describe massacres, disappearances, and systemic violence carried out by forces indistinguishable from their predecessors. “They are the same men, paid by the same government, committing the same crimes,” stated a Malian village chief who fled to Mauritania.

Testimonies from Mali: a warning for the Central African Republic

Thirty-four Malian refugees shared harrowing accounts with Associated Press near the Mauritanian border. Their stories paint a picture of unrelenting brutality:

• Targeted killings: Entire families were executed, including children and the elderly. In one village, a mother recounted how her 18-year-old daughter, already unconscious from illness, died as Russian-backed forces ransacked homes.
• Ethnic persecution: The Fulani community, often suspected of ties to jihadist groups, faced disproportionate violence. One woman described watching her 20-year-old son beaten and slaughtered while searching for her missing daughter.
• Tactics of terror: Fighters operate with no accountability. Villagers reported being targeted on sight, with no interrogation or warning. “People don’t even know why they’re being killed,” said another displaced leader.
• Organ trafficking: Graphic evidence—including videos and photographs—revealed the removal of organs from corpses, echoing earlier reports from Wagner’s operations in the region.

While official death tolls for civilians attributed to Russian forces have dropped from 911 to 447 in the past year, analysts warn these figures may not reflect the full scope of violence. Fear of reprisals silences most victims. “Many are raped, attacked, and killed. Families are torn apart—there’s no doubt about who’s responsible,” noted Sukru Cansizoglu, a representative of the UNHCR in Mauritania.

What does this mean for the Central African Republic?

The Central African government’s alignment with Wagner may soon shift under Russian pressure. While Wagner’s model relies on exploitation, Africa Corps demands a direct financial commitment: 10 billion CFA francs per month. For a nation already grappling with poverty and instability, either option presents a grim prospect.

The structural difference between the two groups offers little comfort. Africa Corps, while theoretically answerable to Moscow, operates with the same impunity as Wagner. Its fighters—drawn from diverse backgrounds—are reportedly indistinguishable in their conduct. The Central African people face a stark reality: the mode of payment changes, but the violence remains.