Mali’s evolving conflict: beyond military solutions, the battle for legitimacy

The security situation across Mali is experiencing a rapid and concerning decline. Coordinated offensives by jihadist groups, coupled with separatist dynamics in the northern regions, have placed the Malian state under immense, multifaceted strategic pressure. However, beneath this visible reality, a more profound transformation is underway. Less dramatic than the direct clashes, this shift is infinitely more decisive: the conflict’s center of gravity is moving. What unfolds in Mali today extends far beyond a conventional military confrontation.

For over a decade, the Malian crisis has been viewed primarily through a security lens. Interventions by national forces, supported by various partners, were framed around a strategy of stabilization through military might. While this approach managed to contain certain immediate threats, it ultimately failed to establish the structural, long-term stability that was anticipated.

The political vacuum: a new authority emerges

Paradoxically, this focus on military solutions fostered a strategic illusion: the belief that restoring security would automatically pave the way for the state’s return. However, Mali’s current reality demonstrates the opposite. A state can retain military projection capabilities while progressively losing political, social, and symbolic control over its own territory.

In numerous areas across central and northern Mali, the nature of power has undergone a profound transformation. The state has not simply retreated; it has been replaced. Various armed groups, both jihadist and non-jihadist, have gradually established alternative forms of authority. To varying degrees, they now fulfill essential functions: providing local security, mediating disputes, regulating economic activities, and structuring social life.

This evolving power dynamic is not solely based on coercion. It also stems from a growing disconnect between the central state and a segment of the population. In these regions, the absence of essential public services, the fragility of administrative relays, and the perception of a distant government have created an opportune space that other actors have skillfully filled. In politics, a vacuum never truly exists; it is invariably occupied.

The decisive battle: restoring legitimacy

The Malian crisis has now entered a phase where the military dimension, while still crucial, is no longer sufficient on its own. The true confrontation is unfolding elsewhere: in the capacity to generate and sustain legitimacy.

Who truly protects the populace? Who delivers justice perceived as equitable? Who embodies credible and predictable authority? These are the questions now shaping local choices. In this complex environment, military superiority no longer guarantees victory. It can even prove ineffective in the long term if it is not accompanied by a comprehensive political and social reconquest.

Rethinking the strategic approach

Breaking free from the current impasse necessitates a fundamental shift in paradigm. It is no longer merely about reclaiming territory or neutralizing armed groups. The objective must be to rebuild a robust state presence capable of establishing itself sustainably within these territories. This demands an integrated approach, tightly weaving together security, political, and social dimensions. The state must re-establish its visibility, not solely through its coercive power, but crucially through its utility to the people.

This strategic shift entails:

• the effective restoration of sovereign functions, delivered as closely as possible to the populations;
• the proactive re-engagement with territories through credible administrative and social mechanisms;
• the meticulous reconstruction of local chains of trust;
• a renewed capacity to seize the initiative in shaping perceptions and narratives.

In essence, the challenge is not simply to reassert state authority, but to render it legitimate once more.

Mali is not an isolated case. In many respects, it serves as a laboratory for the evolving nature of contemporary conflicts across the Sahel. In this region, competition among actors is no longer confined to military confrontation. It is deeply embedded in a broader struggle for the organization of societies, control over territories, and influence among populations. This fundamental shift demands a re-evaluation of classical categories of warfare and stabilization. Power is no longer measured solely by the capacity for coercion, but by the ability to establish an accepted social and political order.

An unresolved equation

The Malian crisis has transitioned into a phase where the critical question is no longer just about territorial control, but about the reconstruction of the state’s political and social authority. The true battle is no longer fought exclusively on the front lines. It is waged through the capacity to regain legitimacy, demonstrate utility, and earn acceptance from the populations. In the Sahel, no territory remains empty indefinitely. When a state recedes, other actors inevitably step into its place. However, the sustainable stabilization of Mali also hinges on the gradual reintroduction of political discourse and action into the national arena.

This prospect remains particularly intricate within a context marked by the weakening of political parties, the marginalization or exile of many civil figures, and the overwhelming predominance of security-centric approaches. The central question, therefore, is not merely how to regain control of the territory, but under what conditions a credible political space can be cultivated to support the state’s reconstruction and restore a shared sense of legitimacy.