Washington is considering expanding its military operations to include strikes against the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al-Qaïda-affiliated group operating in Mali. This development follows four years after France’s withdrawal from the country, raising fresh concerns about regional security.
While no final decision has been made, internal discussions within the Trump administration are actively exploring this option. Sebastian Gorka, the National Security Council’s counterterrorism adviser, is reportedly a key advocate for such an intervention. However, other officials remain skeptical about the long-term efficacy of military action in the region.
If approved, these strikes would mark the eighth country targeted by US military operations during Donald Trump’s second term. Meanwhile, the White House has neither confirmed nor denied these reports. A senior administration official emphasized Washington’s push for African nations—particularly those in North and West Africa—to bolster their anti-terrorism capabilities by acquiring US-made equipment and services. The official described the Sahel’s terrorism challenge as a « multinational issue ».
The JNIM has emerged as one of the most formidable armed factions in West Africa, with its operational reach extending beyond Mali into neighboring coastal nations. Analysts point to the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel as a catalyst for the group’s growing influence over the past few years.
Potential pitfalls: escalation risks and unintended consequences
Critics warn that a US-led military campaign could backfire, undermining efforts to deradicalize and disarm one of the region’s most sophisticated jihadist organizations. Corinne Dufka, an independent Sahel security expert, cautioned that eliminating JNIM leaders might provoke deeper radicalization rather than weaken the group.
Historical precedents also raise doubts about the effectiveness of military interventions. France’s decade-long operation in the region, followed by Russia’s five-year presence, failed to curb the spread of jihadist activity. Some analysts argue that additional strikes could inadvertently strengthen rival factions, such as the Islamic State in the Sahel, which may exploit the JNIM’s potential weakening.
Another concern is the risk of escalation with Russian forces already deployed in Mali. Russia has offered security assistance to several African nations, including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, though outcomes have been inconsistent. A US official noted, « We hope African countries recognize the limited impact of Russia’s counterterrorism efforts. »
