Niger’s tiani regime faces the inevitable trap of power seized by force

A familiar pattern unfolds with tragic predictability in Niamey. Governments may change, and leaders come and go, but the underlying method of power acquisition remains disturbingly consistent.

When heavy gunfire and explosions once again shattered the night around Niamey’s presidential palace and airbase, the populace held its breath, gripped by a painful sense of déjà vu. Whether stemming from frustrated garrison mutinies or rivalries among the military elite, these incidents are not mere accidents; they are direct symptoms of the very architecture of regimes born from coups d’état.

History offers an unyielding lesson: leaders who seize power by force are inevitably threatened or removed by the very same means. This pattern holds true even following the recent overthrow of civil power in July 2023.

This inherent instability is rooted in precise structural and political factors that invariably exhaust military juntas:

The prolonged transition period wears thin

A transition lasting three years feels like an eternity for a population initially asked for a temporary effort. As months turn into years, the initial public enthusiasm or tolerance gives way to understandable frustration. When the period of exception drags on, the absence of a clear democratic horizon transforms promises of national renewal into a mere exercise in power preservation.

The looming shadow of security realities

The core justification for the coup in Niger was to “restore security and dignity.” Yet, governance by decree does not erase the realities on the ground. Despite sovereignist rhetoric and shifts in geopolitical alliances, when security promises fail to materialize and soldiers continue to fall on the front lines, the narrative loses its potency. Doubt begins to seep in, first among the troops, then spreading to the streets.

Force as the sole rule of succession

By overturning a constitutional order, a military power like the CNSP validates force as the only legitimate means to resolve political disputes. General Tiani, by demonstrating that a rifle can secure the presidential chair, inadvertently teaches the same lesson to colonels, captains, or rival factions within the armed forces. The army ceases to be a monolithic shield and transforms into a chessboard of internal rivalries. Official reports indicated the August 28th incident was a mutiny within the armed forces.

From Seyni Kountché to Ibrahim Baré Maïnassara, and including Salou Djibo, Niger’s political annals reveal that power established by bayonets inherently carries the seeds of its own contestation.

The recent gunfire near the seat of power is merely an echo of this political law. As long as legitimacy is not anchored in a republican and civilian pact, power in Niamey will remain vulnerable to the slightest spark from the barracks. Because a weapon holds no eternal allegiance: the one that installs a man in power today remains precisely the same one that threatens to unseat him tomorrow.